The British Pound Is Falling Against Many Currencies

For the past 4 weeks the British Pounds has gone through a roller coaster ride and in the past 2 days it has fallen to a 24 year record low against the USD. It has also fallen so much that it is 1st time in the history that it has created an all time low against the Japanese yen. (click on image to see) Euro $ is becoming on par to GBP soon, at 0.941 at this moment.

Not only that, even Singapore is hit by this crisis, although not as bad, the Prime Minister did pre-warn the country last nite on the news, “this could be the worse economic crisis Singapore has ever seen…” Well of course, since Great Depression did not affect Singapore that much.

During times like these, forex traders will enjoy the rewards if you can anticipate such a volatile movement. I do know of such a system forex trader who has got quite a foresight, and he shared with me quite a bit during this past few months.

He told me about his thoughts about the market and based on his trading experience, he could link everything that is happening and make senses to me. He shared with me indepth of the inside of the trading world and answered all my questions to his best knowledge. He is truly someone whom I will look for advice when it comes to trading.

It seems like to me that everything I have read from books and told by a few wise men, everything that is text book context is happening in today’s world, I never thought I would live to see it, but its happening.

Ok before I continue, please do not panic. Its not the end of the world. It will not be as bad as the Great Depression. So put your faith with what you are doing and just keep doing what you are good at, you will be fine. Esp for people who does not mind downgrading their situation and continue to work hard.

Ok, are you ready for this? This is what I think is happening. Purely my personal opinion, for I am not a prophet.

As the debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards) accumulate, payments get defaulted. Billions of dollars of paper assets are lost. Overpriced properties were overpriced because of the optimism from the boom has caused the properties to become negative equities. Consumers who owe the banks cannot repay, the banks declare heavy losses, shareholders lose faith and hard sell shares of banks, no more incoming funds + lack of repayments = not enough cash to give to panic depositors who wants their hard earned money out of the banks. Banks ask for help from government to stay afloat. Govt have to help to make sure all the hard earned money of the civilians are protected.

Consumption is reduced because no one is spending like before, retailers close down stores after stores, so does the manufacturers. Jobs are lost. Consumption is further reduced. High unemployment rates will further put the economy to a lower level.

So far it has been a negative note and many of you are probably worried. So here comes the positive side…

As long as the policy makers are making the right decisions after learning their lessons from the Great Depression, they should help (big) companies to change or diversify their operations to suit the economy and continue to employ workers, and consumers should continue to spend, so that the economy can grow back. Of course based on the economics that I have learnt, as long as there are consumption, there will be upwards growth (in general) and also ideally, market efficiency.

Anyways, this blog post is not to scare people or panic anyone. This is just a reminder to do your part as a consumer and citizen to contribute to the revival of the economy, afterall the economy is like these all because of the consumers – us!

Please do not be offended.

My gentle reminder to my dear readers and friends would be:
i) stay away from equities unless you know what you are doing, for at least 6 months to a year.
ii) if you have a job, be glad that you have a job, don’t complain too much about your job.
iii) if you feel shaky or uncertain about your job, start to look for additional sources of income.
iv) if you just lost your job, please don’t be too unrealistic when you are looking for the next one, have to be patient to get the ideal job that you want, meantime settle for something to put food on the table.